When the Growth Cycle Ends

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When the Growth Cycle Ends

Vision is clarified. Strategy is developed. Action plans are implemented. Lives are changed. Needs are met. Growth follows. The pattern repeats. And the end never comes. Or does it?

The reality is that growth seasons run in cycles. As sure as there’s a beginning, there’s an end. What kind of ending depends on the church and its leaders.

What happens when the growth cycle ends? Consider three possibilities:

  • The church crash lands—the result of a single, fateful event or a long-simmering issue that finally reaches its explosive climax.
  • The church enters a holding pattern—the curse of the plateau.
  • The church recharges for another growth cycle.

If the church crash lands, then casualties are the result. It might be worn-out leaders or church members who leave for greener pastures. Church finances may suffer and ministries may become hollowed out over time. In the worst case there’s no course correction and the church eventually dies.

Crash landings occur when the leader fails to cast clear vision, multiply disciples and build a solid missional foundation for the inevitable challenges that lie ahead.

If the end of growth happens due an organizational deficiency, then the church is in danger of entering the up and down—but generally flat—trend line called the growth plateau. Most churches can’t break free from this holding pattern without some significant course correction.

In these first two scenarios, growth ends because something went wrong. Several factors can trigger an end to ministry growth:

  • Leadership Drift — Leaders lose sight of the church’s unifying mission and vision and spend valuable resources on sideways energy.
  • Staff Turnover — Seasons of high team turnover make it difficult to sustain ministry momentum and growth.
  • Failure to Execute Effectively — Too little time and resources spent on Christ-centered, nuts-and-bolts ministry execution is a recipe for stalled growth.
  • External Factors — If we learned anything from the COVID-19 experience, it’s that we can’t control a wide range of external factors that impact church growth and health.
  • Internal Conflict — Lack of vision clarity often leads to conflict among church leaders and members.
  • Apathy and Entitlement — Lukewarmness and complacency are the enemy of a growth mindset. If enough of it takes root, then the church loses its spiritual vitality and stops growing.

Even though we face growth challenges, unhappy endings aren’t inevitable. There is hope for leaders and churches ready to recharge for another growth cycle. Tony Morgan offers this aspirational perspective:

Most churches start, grow, thrive, decline and eventually end. But I believe God’s plan for our churches is that they grow in maturity towards a peak of sustained health, and that as methods and traditions and culture change, they continually reevaluate and refresh, finding new ways to lead people towards Jesus.

Healthy churches possess clear vision, effective leadership and able execution. After a short pause at the end of the growth cycle they are able to recharge, refresh and relaunch into a new season of growth.

As church leaders, we are the ones most responsible for positioning our churches to navigate the peaks and valleys of growth. We should prepare well because wherever our church is in the growth cycle, the end is coming.

So what’s the Big Idea?

Avoid organizational pitfalls that lead to crash landings and the curse of the plateau. Instead, build a healthy church ready to navigate the inevitable end of the growth cycle. Then recharge and relaunch into a new season of growth.

Resources


Source

“Understanding the 7 Phases of a Church’s Life Cycle” by Tony Morgan, The Unstuck Group (June 21, 2021), https://theunstuckgroup.com/phases-church-life-cycle.

Dechurched America

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Dechurched America

Have you thought lately about the people you used to see at church? They may be folks who came regularly prior to COVID-19 and the resulting closures. They could be people who spent most of their time around the edges of church life—the ones who may not have fully committed to the cause of Christ.

Even now, you may be thinking about someone specific, or even more telling, someone who’s currently in danger of joining the growing ranks of those who used to go to church.

That topic is fully discussed in The Great Dechurching by Jim Davis and Michael Graham. Their research describes the 40 million Americans who’ve left the church in the last 25 years: dechurched people that represent 16% of the adult population. Perhaps the most significant consequence of this seismic shift are its effects on subsequent generations.

What will the absence of faith, spiritual growth and meaningful church relationships mean for them? For a broad range of personal, relational, sociological and moral outcomes, it can’t be good.

The research in The Great Dechurching offers some very Big Ideas for churches:

  • Moving — When churchgoers move to a new city, they are removed from their previous rhythm of church attendance, relationships and accountability. It’s no surprise that many fall away and never find their way into a new church.
  • Discipleship — Shallow and nonexistent disciple making structures are the single most important explanation for American dechurching. Meaningful membership and a robust discipleship process are essential in twenty-first century churches.
  • Relationships — Everyone needs deep relationships for their emotional, physical and spiritual wellbeing. More than a club you join, church is a family with heartfelt connections and deeper than surface-level conversation.

Discipleship matters. A startling observation about the dechurched is the strong tendency for people to decouple from a local church when they move to a new city. This speaks to the habits and rhythm we establish in our lives, but more importantly, it tells us we haven’t discipled folks carefully enough to establish sustainable Christ-centered, missional maturity in their lives.

Our Great Commission mandate is to make disciples, which translates to clarity in our disciple-making process and the church’s primary role as an incubator for personal spiritual growth. When our churches fail on this point, we invariably leave many people in a vulnerable state, susceptible to a degraded culture and worldly decoys that pull them away from God and His church.

Relationships and biblical community matter almost as much. That means loving, caring, sharing and listening. So many dechurched people have experienced some form of relationship trauma, often unforced and unintentional, and usually the result of the broader cultural trend of less social interaction. Incidentally, this coincides with a general diminishing of relational intelligence and soft skills both inside and outside the church.

What’s our best response to this grim assessment of our current reality? We should reengage the people around us with our full relational attention, armed with the gospel and God’s loving embrace of those who are lost and adrift. Graham and Davis say that: “Some people need a nudge, others need a dinner table, and others need years of patient and prayerful, consistent movement into their lives.”

In other words, dechurched people need our time, our patience, our prayer and our devoted attention to forming real relationships and deeper connections.

All of this resonates with the bigger cultural conversation we’ve having about the loneliness epidemic, anti-socialization tendencies and increasing isolation felt by a growing number of Americans. A recent survey by the Harvard School of Education reports that 21% percent of adults have had “serious feelings of loneliness.”

Among people ages 18-29 the rate was 24% and among those ages 30-44 the rate was 29%. According to the survey, a leading cause of loneliness was “no religious or spiritual life” and “too much focus on one’s own feelings, and the changing nature of work” by around 50% of those surveyed.

So what’s the Big Idea?

A strong discipleship process and healthy, biblical community are what vibrant churches do to engage Christ-centered people and help them grow spiritually. And it’s the very thing that keeps churchgoers from joining the growing ranks of those who used to go to church.

Resources


Sources

Jim Davis and Michael Graham, The Great Dechurching: Who’s Leaving, Why Are They Going, and What Will It Take to Bring Them Back? (Grand Rapids, MI: Zondervan, 2023), 50.

“What Is Causing Our Epidemic of Loneliness and How Can We Fix It?” by Elizabeth M. Ross, Harvard Graduate School of Education (October 25, 2024), https://www.gse.harvard.edu/ideas/usable-knowledge/24/10/what-causing- our-epidemic-loneliness-and-how-can-we-fix-it.

Scoreboards & Accountability

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Scoreboards & Accountability

If you’ve served or led for any length of time, then you’ve probably watched a key initiative come up short. Maybe a ministry plan was doomed from the start. Perhaps it was slowly and quietly smothered by competing priorities.

What happened? The whirlwind of day-to-day activities consumed most of your time and energy, leaving little margin for important and strategic things.

Ministry 4DX is the application of Franklin Covey’s 4 Disciplines of Execution (4DX) to church growth and revitalization. It leads your team to execute on your most important strategic priorities in the midst of the whirlwind. 4DX includes:

  • Discipline #1 – Focus on the wildly important
  • Discipline #2 – Act on the lead measure.
  • Discipline #3 – Create a compelling scoreboard.
  • Discipline #4 – Create a cadence of accountability.

Create a compelling scoreboard. Since each ministry area or department has 1 or 2 wildly important goals (WIGs), it makes sense that each team will use a scoreboard that measures important lead measures for those goals.

The key idea is to take weekly stock of several lead measures, then show the lag measure they impact. Over time, positive movement in the lead measures should impact the lag measure (attendance, participation, etc.) in the right direction.

For example, a departmental scorecard for community might have five lead measures for new leaders and groups that point to one lag measure—attendance. The team’s time and energy is spent on the first five items with the expectation that average attendance will go up.

Create a cadence of accountability. Each ministry area or department can schedule weekly LAUNCH meetings to help create a cadence of accountability.

Typical meetings are no more than 20 minutes and include quick reports from everyone. Here’s a typical agenda:

  • Pray for each other.
  • What are the 1-3 most important things I can do this week to impact the scoreboard?
  • Report on last week’s commitments.
  • Review and update the scoreboard.
  • Make commitments for next week.

So what’s the Big Idea?

Use 4DX to execute on your most important strategic priorities in the midst of the whirlwind. Create a compelling scoreboard and a cadence of accountability.

Resources

Ministry 4DX, Part 1

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Ministry 4DX, Part 1

If you’ve served or led for any length of time, then you’ve probably watched a key initiative come up short. Maybe a ministry plan was doomed from the start. Perhaps it was slowly and quietly smothered by competing priorities.

What happened? The whirlwind of day-to-day activities consumed most of your time and energy, leaving little margin for important and strategic things.

Ministry 4DX is the application of Franklin Covey’s 4 Disciplines of Execution (4DX) to church growth and revitalization. It leads your team to execute on your most important strategic priorities in the midst of the whirlwind. 4DX includes:

  • Discipline #1 – Focus on the wildly important
  • Discipline #2 – Act on the lead measure.
  • Discipline #3 – Create a compelling scoreboard.
  • Discipline #4 – Create a cadence of accountability.

Focus on the wildly important. Each team needs wildly important goals (WIGs). And because team focus is quickly diluted, it’s important that ministry departments and teams have no more than 1 or 2 WIGs at the same time.

Ask the question: What do you need to focus on above all else? For example:

  • Evangelism WIG – Train 1,000 people to share their 1 story, memorize 1 verse, and get their commitment to share with 1 person by 8/1/16.
  • Worship WIG – Grow the 11:00am service +45 by 8/1/16.
  • Community WIG – Grow LIFE groups +80 by 8/1/16.
  • Service WIG – Mobilize 150 people on short-term mission trips by 8/1/16.

Act on the lead measure. Every goal needs a measuring stick, but not just any measuring stick. Placing your focus on the right measure is one of the most important things you can do to improve execution.

What’s the difference between lead and lag measures? Here’s a quick definition:

  • Lead Measure – Something that leads to the goal
  • Lag Measure – Something that measures the goal

The key idea is to take weekly stock of several lead measures, then show the lag measure they impact. Over time, positive movement in the lead measures should impact the lag measure (attendance, participation, etc.) in the right direction.

Take a look at some lead and lag ministry measure examples:

  • Evangelism Lead Measure—1×3 Outreach Initiative Commitments—impacts the Lag Measure—Baptisms
  • Worship Lead Measure—Invite Cards Distributed—impacts the Lag Measure—Worship Attendance
  • Community Lead Measure—New Groups Started—impacts the Lag Measure—Groups Attendance
  • Service Lead Measure—New People Mobilized—impacts the Lag Measure—Missions Participation

So what’s the Big Idea?

Use 4DX to execute on your most important strategic priorities in the midst of the whirlwind. Focus on the wildly important and act on the lead measure.

Resources

3 Ways to Measure Church Health

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3 Ways to Measure Church Health

We have long measured outward signs of church health. They tell the story of needs met, people reached and lives changed. But do traditional measures of health tell the most important parts of that story?

Most churches measure the usual things and count them as measures of success or failure. While that can be a useful exercise, there’s more to church health than attendance and money. Andy Stanley and the North Point team say it this way:

Too many church leaders have bought into the myth that to clarify the win means establishing attendance goals and raising a lot of money. These can certainly be indicators about the health of your organization, but strong numbers in these areas do not necessarily mean you are winning.

Consider how you know your church is winning. Healthy churches are known for their worship and their witness.  They are purposeful places of discipleship, ministry, evangelism and missions. They are Great Commission and Great Commandment places of authentic Christian fellowship and community.

The key is knowing with certainty whether or not those words accurately describe your church. You may intuitively know the answer based on experience and anecdotal evidence, but dig deeper to build an evenhanded picture of church health.

Consider 3 ways to measure church health objectively:

  1. Research who you are and where you’ve been. Research helps you know precisely where your church is at this moment. It helps you answer important questions about the people who populate your church (and the ones who don’t). Compile data and gather information on the journey your church has traveled and where it is right now. Map the trend lines over a period of several years so you can visualize areas of strength and areas of opportunity. Read more
  2. Ask the right questions. Analyzing the data you’ve gathered may take some time and effort. It may also require a brainstorming session of your ministry staff team and other church leaders. Pray over the results of your research. Examine the numerical data closely and stay true to what it tells you about your current situation.
    • Ask “why” and “how” questions. Read more
    • Don’t stop asking questions. Read more
    • Consider the sample questions below.
  3. Consider past and present definitions of success. Focus on outputs vs. inputs. Inputs tell you what ingredients go in to something. Outputs tell you what comes out on the other side. Move beyond simple input measures to the more significant outcomes you’re aiming for. Find ways to measure success quantitatively. While qualitative measures are subjective and experiential, quantitative measures, or metrics, are objective and numerical. In most cases, quantitative measures are the best way to measure outcomes without bias. Read more

So what’s the Big Idea?

Research who you are and where you’ve been. Ask the right questions about the information you gather. And consider past and present definitions of success. That’s the way to take an unbiased, evenhanded snapshot of church health.

Resources

Ask the Right Questions

  • What does the raw data tell you about your church?
  • Is your church growing, plateaued or declining?
  • Are you reaching unchurched people in your community?
  • Does the church reflect its community? (race, age and more)
  • How many church members did it take to baptize one person?
  • Does this number seem unreasonably high?
  • Are you reproducing disciple-making disciples?
  • Does the church show signs of spiritual health?
  • What are age division attendance patterns in small groups?
  • What growth opportunities exist in those patterns?
  • Is morning worship attendance advancing or declining?


Source

Andy Stanley, Reggie Joiner and Lane Jones, 7 Practices of Effective Ministry (Colorado Springs: Multnomah Books, 2004), 71.